Home › Forums › Baccarat Public › The Art Of Net Betting – 2
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Ellis Davis.
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August 28, 2015 at 11:46 am #1010
Ellis DavisParticipantSo, OK, so far we learned, thanks to research and experimentation and actual play by Kevin that U1D1 Net betting works very well against the tighter P v B disparity of factory cards.
And our sample partial shoe of 40 plays With 9 vs 11 P V B disparity in the first col of 20 plays and 10 Vs 10 in the 2nd col. achieved a score of +24 with a PA of 29.3%. I also noted that within those 40 plays, disparity reached a high of 9 Banks vs 4 Players. Yet we still won very well at +24 in 40 plays because disparity tended to eventually even out.
What could possibly be better than that? Well, there IS something much better and also much safer:
Kevin played an U1D1 progression which usually attains the highest PA possible – but not necessarily when you are net betting.
I don’t use an U1D1 progression when net betting. I use my all time favorite progression U1D2.
Why?
We know that the enemy of regular low disparity net betting is disparity.
Well the D2 (down 2) feature of U1D2 is a very effective disparity eater – a disparity neutralizer – a friend.
Watch what happens when I play the same 40 plays over again with just one change, U1D2 progressions instead of U1D1.
We would expect that since U1D2 is a far less aggressive progression that it would score a lot less. It does score slightly less but it does so in a MUCH safer way.
While U1D1 scores +24 for the entire 40 plays, U1D2 scores +21.
But in the first column, the column with the most disparity, U1D2 actually scored better: +9 vs +8.
The biggest difference was exactly at the point of the greatest Disparity: play 13. While U1D1 was at a score of -8 at play 13, U1D2 was at +3, an 11 point spread!
Yet in the 2nd col, the col with no disparity, U1D1 scores the most.
So which way had the better overall performance.
It wasn’t even close. U1D2 did best overall.
Our best measurement of performance is PA. Player Advantage is units won divided by units bet. (The same as ROI or Return on Investment).
Sure, U1D1 won more units at +24 but it bet 82 units to do so with a highest bet of 6. U1D1 achieved a 29.3% PA. Excellent, except:
U1D2 won +21 units but it only bet 57 units with a highest bet of only 3. It achieved a PA of 36.8%.
What does this mean? It means that while U1D1 will achieve the highest scores under very tight disparity situations, it will also suffer the greatest drawdowns under adverse disparity situations.
It means that U1D2 will win the most shoes.
As you learn you will discover that the game is not about the highest scores.The game is about which way wins the most often.
So I submit to you that while U1D1 can produce the more spectacular shoes, U1D2 produces the most consistent wins and is by far the safer of the two.
If you want to experiment, my 40 plays were:
P131112132131
P221113222121I will play the shoe for you U1D2 and post it on the private forum.
My purpose here was to let the general public know that there is a simple way to beat factory preshuffled cards that will be detailed in the manual and on the private forum. I don’t expect them to decipher how yet – just letting them know it is available.
And if you want to know more about “PA”, I’ll make it the first question on our FAQ page.
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