Hello Private Members and Public Members:
In this journey that I have been experiencing with Baccarat, I’ve come to the realization that what I use to Fear as Money Lost is now a thing of the Past.
Why because I’ve always related to other players that I have met in the casinos that what Ellis teaches us is not to win more money first and foremost but on the contrary to win more hands… This inevitably grants us more more money overall…
And Ellis always says that once we buy into a game we must consider that there is no longer a correlation between the chips we are purchasing and the money used to obtain them…. Ellis says think of chips as mere plastic tidily winks (tools of the game) used only to play the game just as cards are…
After which we can Now Foresee the game as Real without the controlling Fear of losing money… So if we lose the Fear of losing the Money we can truly play the game without any hinderances related to money… Which makes playing the game of Baccarat controlled by Arithmetic rather than the Fear of Losing Money…
How cool is that!!! :mail: :yahoo: :good: B-)
CFC
5 thoughts on “Fear (F@#$% Everything And Run) vs Fear (Foreseeing Everything As Real)
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Look, the odds of the game are 50/50 +1.25% commission..
Yet, players lose at an astounding rate of 15% +.
Mathematicians will tell you THAT is IMPOSSIBLE! Yet there it is.
How can that possibly be?
It proves one thing for sure: Casinos KNOW what they are doing. Casino strategy Works!
Casinos like to lull you to sleep with repetition. They are setting you up for the kill – waiting for you to increase your stakes. And when you do WHAM! Everything changes. THAT is what they are good at.
We must stay on CONSTANT alert! We can’t let our guard down.
We beat casinos by deploying their own strategy against them.
When THEY change, WE must change right along with them.
We can’t afford lapses.
I’m teaching you about ten ways to beat a casino.
But the trick remains – We must deploy the right system at the right time.
And the secret to that is tote board reading.
We must all become expert at tote board reading.
And it’s not that hard. It is all plain common sense.
Playing Baccarat W/O knowing how to read a tote board is like playing golf W/O knowing which way the green is.
Once you know the systems, the rest is correct tote board reading.
That’s why I spend so much time on it.
Tote board reading is EVERYTHING!
All good conversation but I would be careful about making blanket statements re Baccarat such as NOR doesn’t bode well against factory preshuffled cards.
I prefer, “Never decide what you are going to play before you see what you are up against.”
I was playing Caesars Vegas regularly last year. Because that casino uses solely factory preshuffled cards, I was playing MDB+ which beats random cards..
I was playing their high stakes room because there, they use new cards every shoe which is what MDB+ likes best.
All went well for many trips, until…..
I get there late on a Sat. afternoon. I was scheduled to meet up with Art and Ed Gil. Not seeing either around yet, I take my regular seat at their main 14 player high stakes table. Per usual, I play MDB+ W/O giving it a second thought – always a mistake.
You should ALWAYS check out the whole situation thoroughly before ever making your first bet.
I lose a 1,2 betting 1’s will go to 2. And then another 1,2.
I’m at hand 56, down -6 W/O having won a single bet.
Then I bet 4 that 2 single 1’s would go multiple 1. It did and I finish down 2.
THEN I did what I should have done in the first place – I took stock.
The shoe had NO 2s !
What are the odds of that?
1 out of 256,000! Yet it was my 3rd 2-less shoe in Vegas that year!
Random my ass!
Had I taken stock, all I had to do was play TB4L. The ONLY thing TB4L losses to is 2s. If you have no 2s, TB4L doesn’t lose to anything – it wins every single progression at either the 1 or the 2 or the 3 bet level.
Had I not skipped my normal process of taking stock, it was an easy +40 shoe!
But instead, of starting out at +40, because of my haste, I started out at -2.
Then I met up with Art and Ed.
They had both also finished their first shoes. Both lost.
Why? Because, like me, they had both played MDB+ W/O first checking.
Art’s shoe had 17 1’s in a row in it. How random is THAT?
Ed’s shoe was 80% Repeats! How random is that?
So THEN we did what we SHOULD have done in the first place – We checked every table in the casino – both high stakes and on the open floor.
Guess what? Every single table in that casino – about 60 – was a NOR table. We are talking PERFECT NOR tables.
So Ed and I switched to NOR and beat one table after another after another. We won every single table we played. Ed wrote a trip report back there. I never even used a score card.
Art, very stubborn minded, stuck with MDB+. He had his first lost trip.
So what is the lesson here?
ALWAYS case the joint FIRST!
Never assume ANYTHING.
Casinos DO their job!
Their job is to present a moving target.
What worked yesterday may be the WORST way to play today.
Casinos ALWAYS do THEIR job – We need to ALWAYS do OURS!
We can’t leave entire steps out of our procedure and still expect to win.
We need to play what wins TODAY – not what won yesterday.
I am no longer using NOR as it does not fair well against pre-shuffled cards. The method(s) I use are mostly my own creations and very unit as you have never seen before. It analyzes the PB in a 6th dimension and further to that, is broken up into various offset pattern win loss sequences and then measures the success of those win loss sequences to finally arrive to a bet place,net signal. On top of that, disparity of the win losses is measured as a filter to bet placement odds. Sounds complicated eh? Well, it’s not really, and I am not in a position to fully disclose it at this time, sorry. I also use MDB+ and it is also part of the method above.
Moneym magemebt is utmost important and I believe in lifetime bankrolls of 150 or greater. Sounds high? Not really, have you ever considered a casinos bankroll size they use compared to the money they risk on a daily basis ?. Think about it… If you start to have a losing streak, your bet size is adjusted by bankroll unit size divisible by 150. You should stay alive a long time. As you continue to win, you should raise lifetime bankroll by 10 units.
These are some thoughts for now.
CC
hi,cdn
danny here,thanks for the reply.FYI, I DON’T have any basic knowledge of NOR as we speak.if I may ask the following;
1.what system/method of ellis are you using to achieve consistent,day to day wins (6-7 units plus/day)?
2.if you are say beginning to wager say $25 minimum basebets ,do you apply up as you lose,down 2 as you win in the beginning of your bets.(U1D2)
is that how you apply NOR a oppose to LCNB bets (2 ,units your highest bet)
3.So I’m guessing that pre-shuffled cards you are using MDB (I DON’T have knowledge of that too) and the 4 tables regular cards you used NOR here.
4,if you could illustrate through examples like in your last teaching on feb 10 while,using $25 basebets,the formula;U1D1 as oppose to U1D2.btw,what are the modes? and how do you use them in conjunction w/U1D1/U1D2
5,do you combine NOR, and then along the way,if the patterns changes you change the method too? so that,per shoe you change methods twice? to attain “target 6 but take 5 and don’t forced it if it doesn’t win”strategy.
PPs,if that strategy on feb 10 2016 works,as well as the answers to the 5questions you are about to send to me,then I’M ALL EARS,pal !! :good: thanks very much
I can totally relate to what you are saying in this post. Like Ellis has taught me and foremost I have learned a lot with close to 20 years of baccarat experience, HWR (Hands Win Rate) is what makes your game successful and determines the progression used in your system of choice. Over the past 4 months I have been using a method that consistently has >50% HWR, and that’s all you need. I HAVE SOME SHOES WITH UP TO 74% HWR even. With this HWR, I have chosen to use U1D2 progression along with a “Stop Win Target” of +5> units per shoe. When you can achieve this on a regular basis, I have obtained between 15 – 20 units per session, and your bankroll grows very steadily.
As for the comment about tidily winks and value of chips, here are my thoughts. The chips do represent “real money”, but here’s where most gamblers get it all wrong. I know this because I was once there in this type of thinking but have grown out of it so to speak, you need to learn how to think in “units”. When I do my buy-in, that’s the last moment I think about the $ value of my chips as I quickly check that the dealer has given me the correct amount, after that, I think units and units only…. PERIOD! that is your first step to overpowering fear of losing money. I hear people at the table whining about how much $$$ there are down and when I leave the table a dealer may ask how I did and a typical answer may be; “plus 7 units”, even they give me this confused look as if they were thinking {what are you taking about?}
Okay, I’m on a roll here… Here is something I believe is very important, having the “Stop Win” rule and Obey it with great discipline. my phrase goes like this; “Target six, take five” this means when you are able to win at +6, you are guaranteed to win that shoe, why?, because you will not let your winnings drop below +5. Here’s an example, if I’m up 7 units and my next bet is 1 unit and I lose that bet, leaving me with 6 units. my next bet in my progression is 2 units…. Do I take the next bet?,… “NO” because if I lose that next bet with 2 units, I would then be at +4 units. So the answer is, you stop and walk away from that table with +6. “No matter what” Do you have the discipline to play this way? I do., and I have won over $13K starting at $25 unit size since early November 2015. Why only $13K you ask? When I cone up with a new idea of method, I believe that you should not risk too much capital until it is fully developed, a method to prove itself should be able to make money on its own.
I am very fortunate to live near a Casino here in Canada that has over 54 baccarat tables in a single location. If those fifty-four tables, only 4 of them are dealt with regular card shuffle, all the rest are pre-shuffled.
I met Ellis via telephone conversation over 10 yrs ago and he changed my way of thinking and I owe him thanks for changing the way my game has evolved to as it is played today. I was there the day that Eliis and I both came up with the idea of OTBL and that was the beginning of the foundation for NOR.
Anyhow, there is my 2 cents worth for the day.
HWR, Units & Stop-win rule.
See you at the tables.
CC