Vegas Trip Report Two – 9/18 – Ellis
I realize I’m on the public forum here so I’m avoiding play details.
All play was at Caesars. I got in early enough Friday night to play one shoe so I picked the main 14 player table at Caesars high stakes room with the idea in mind to stick to MDB+ since Caesars is purely factory preshuffled cards.
Wouldn’t you know it – the very first shoe shoe had no 2’s at all. Anyone who knows MDB+ knows that the last thing you want to see is a shoe with no 2’s. Fortunately, since it was my first shoe, I only lost a 1,2,3 prog and I won a few other bets so it wasn’t the end of the world. But it sure gave me pause (not meno-pause) no pun intended.
But here’s the thing: I should have done my thinking BEFORE the game. After the game is too late:
I broke 3 of my own rules by playing Friday night. I’ll try to list them here in order of importance:
1. NEVER decide what you are going to play before you see exactly what you are up against! This was an extremely obvious TB4L game and TB4L would have won about 30 units in this game. A shoe with no 2’s you win every single progression either at the 1 bet or the 2 bet level plus you are on every run whether STraight or ZZ. You never even get to a 3 bet – much less lose one!
2. NEVER play the same day you fly! Look, for me it’s a 3 hour drive to the Memphis airport, + another hour parking and shuttling to your airline + 2 hours security and seating, + 4 hours flying time + 2 hours shuttling to your hotel and registering + the walk to Caesars. That’s 13 hours W/O a meal. I don’t care how experienced you are – no one is in shape to play after that ordeal.
Had I faced the same game after a good meal and 8 hours of sleep, in other words, with my wits about me, I would have immediately recognized it was a TB4L game. And I would have been up 30 units rather than down 3 units.
3. NEVER play Vegas on Friday night! Well, that’s always been more of a BJ thing than a Bac thing. After playing Vegas literally thousands of times I learned you can’t beat Vegas BJ on Friday nights period – I don’t care how good you are – the game is rigged. BJ is rigged all the time but it is particularly rigged on Fri. and Sat. nights. Both A.C. and Vegas, my monthly wins DOUBLED after I learned to AVOID Fri. and Sat. nights completely – including Bac.
I know what you’re thinking: Baccarat can’t be rigged:
Really? Think again! What are the odds of a game with no twos?
Let me put it in language you’ll understand:
There is an average of 36 events per shoe; This means there are 18 opportunities for a two to stay two. The odds of a game with no 2’s is exactly the same as flipping 18 tails in a row. Need I go further? Sure, it can happen – maybe once every 10,000 shoes – do the math. But that is the second time I got a shoe with no 2s after announcing when and where and what I was going to play.
So OK, I did the math for you: The odds of a shoe with no 2’s are 1 in 256,000.
Do you still think that TWO of them was mere coincidence?
So Saturday I did what I should have done Friday night – I checked every tote board in the casino. Guess what! NOR, NOR, and More NOR one tote board after another.
In spite of factory preshuffled cards!
Right, factory cards don’t usually produce NOR shoes. BUT, I say again: factory cards are bought in known card orders and every bundle is numbered. Do you really think those numbers have no meaning? OR, do you think casinos know exactly what they are doing???
I think maybe it’s a weekend strategy with Caesars. That was my first weekend at Caesars. Had I checked first as I should have, I would have quickly noticed that all the tote boards, both in high stakes and on the floor, were highly biased and strongly favoring the NOR strategies. It was money for the taking had I simply checked. There were two 11 in a rows in high stakes alone plus a 13 ZZ run on the floor for crying out loud.
But, better late than never. It was easy pickings from there on.
So yep, I switched to NOR and won every shoe. But I’ll let Ed Gil tell you about that. He was playing right along side of me.
Meanwhile Art stuck with MDB+ since he doesn’t know NOR. He did OK. I went over all his shoes and I have some good recommendations but I’ll post those notes on the private forum.
BTW, playing with Ed, I noticed one weakness he had. While Ed does all 3 counts on his score card, the O/R, the O/T and the SAP, he STILL has trouble converting that information into which system to play and which mode to play it in.
I see right off that in the new manual I need to spend a lot more time in how to convert tote board info into system selection.
Players are always telling me: “Ellis, no matter what system I select, it always changes!”
Now that’s funny – that doesn’t happen to me. I never had to change systems in any shoe the entire trip. One shoe we were playing S40 when we hit a TT run of 14 plays – you know BB PP BB PP. So Ed says: aren’t you going to change to OTB4L. I said what for? We are winning every 2 bet and this shoe is too choppy for OTB4L. Sure enough, when the TT ended the shoe went right back into a ZZ run. It turned out to be our best shoe!
Look, you are not going to win every single bet. You can’t be changing systems every time you lose a bet. You’ll end up being wrong EVERY bet. Stick with whatever is winning MOST bets. End of story.
But I’ll spend a lot more time on tote board reading and resultant system selection in the Final Word Manual. I’m seeing that’s the weakest area in just about everyone’s play.
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Oh, BTW, I can’t play these shoes out for you on the public forum. But I WILL play them out for you on the private baccarat forum both with the 1234 prog and also on the 2nd shoe, the 345 prog.
Guys, I know you think I’m telling you a lot on the public forum but the fact is I’m not.
The fact is, you would be in serious trouble if you tried to play based only on what’s in the public forum. But I DO want to tell you enough on the public forum that you recognize we are for real.
But the Private Baccarat forum is the best Baccarat instruction in the world. NOBODY ELSE is even in our league!
OK, let’s pull Ed Gil’s trip report apart and see exactly what’s going on with him.
Ed said: “High Roller Room–September 19, 2015–7:49 PM—Minimum bet $100
P1412111313612412111. This shoe was High in 1’s and 3+ which favored TB4L. I lost 4 units and quit.”
Ok, Ed got the hard part right: High 1’s and 3s is, in fact, TB4L so he’s playing the right system. TB4L has no modes and all your bets are already OTR so there are no OTR decisions. So all all he had to do was make the bets TB4L calls for on the side TB4L calls for. This shoe scores +14 played NOR+ (U1D2) and +13 played Basic NOR (a 123 4 prog). Your worst position is -1 at play 3 because you lose your first bet of the shoe. But you’re never in the red again in this shoe and it’s clear sailing right up to +14. In fact you are already +10 at the bottom of the first column signifying a great shoe in process!
So how did Ed end up at -4? Well, I’ll tell you how. He chickened out. He did not make the bets called for. It’s as simple as that. This was a perfect TB4L shoe but only if you make the bets called for. This shoe gets to a 3 bet, count them, 3 times and it gets to a 4 bet once. The rest of the time you are betting 1 or 2.
There is no polite way of saying this – Ed screwed up a perfect TB4L shoe by not betting the bet called for.
I blame Keith for this! Keith said, and I quote: ” I never bet 3 playing NOR I go back to 1.”
Well, that is NOT NOR. That is BS! And it is a guaranteed way to lose! It is a cut your losses way of playing. It is NOT a winning way. I don’t care if Keith loses. It’s his money. But I DO care when he gives out instructions that cause my players to lose. And playing NOR 2 Hi is a guaranteed way of losing. That’s exactly why Keith always loses. He plays HIS way – not mine. These are MY players – not his. I taught them. He didn’t lift a finger to teach them except to give them a guaranteed way of losing.
NOR is not a 2 Hi system! NOR is a 4 Hi, play every hand, system. Once you start you don’t stop until you hit your stop win. You don’t skip hands and you always make the bet called for. THAT is NOR. If you are not willing to do that – stay home. Don’t blame me for your losses.
NOR+ is a 6 Hi system. Granted, 6 bets come up once in a blue moon BUT if you aren’t prepared to make 6 bets, don’t play NOR+. Stick with NOR BUT be willing and prepared to make 4 bets when called for. If you change them to 1 bets you are NOT playing NOR and you are going to lose, for sure.
Look, whether 4Hi or 6Hi we are STILL the lowest bettors at the table by far. Yet we are the highest winners but only if you make the bets called for.
OK, I think you’ve got my message so lets move on to Ed’s next shoe:
“Regular Casino Area– September 19, 2015–9:00 PM—Minimum bet $25
P11311611121111122221221212. This shoe was High in 1’s and 2’s which favored OTB4L, except where you had the run of 6. I won 13 units and quit.”
Hmm, I’m glad Ed won 13 units in this shoe. It shows the power of NOR even when you play the wrong system. Hi 1’s and 2s is NOT OTB4L. It’s S40.
So I played it S40 by the book. It hits +20 already at play 38 again with a highest bet of a single 4. Your PA is an incredible 37% All you do is make the bets S40 calls for in the Mode your OR counts calls for. Very simple.
As great as this shoe was, unfortunately our OR count betrayed us.
At the Mode decision play, play 10, the OR count was +1. Had it been just 1 different, 0, we would have been in Mode 2 and we would have won 3 more units putting our PA at an unheard of 40%! Just a bit of bad luck.
But +20 in 37 bets is about as good as it gets. Our ABS (avg bet size) was 1.4.
That’s about as good as it gets. BUT you have to be playing the right system. Hi 1’s and 2s is ALWAYS S40.
So Ed said: “This shoe was High in 1’s and 2’s which favored OTB4L, except where you had the run of 6.”
Guys, watch my lips: NO NOR system loses to a 6iar or even a 7.
Runs are your FRIEND! Not your enemy. Why is everybody afraid of runs? Just follow the rules! You’ll do fine. Your only enemy is you.
But, if you go back to a 1 OTR, like Keith said, instead of the 3 NOR calls for – Yep, now runs are your enemy and ALL shoes have runs. That’s why you’ll lose.
So my point here is: If you are going to play NOR, fine, play it by the rules. They are tried and true. You will already be the most conservative player at the table by far.
BUT, there is such a thing as being TOO conservative giving yourself no chance of winning.
One last thing: In both shoes I was playing NOR our most conservative way possible. And it did very well.
BUT, whenever we have a high hit rate on our first bets, basic NOR calls for a 345 progression. Remember that from your manual? Well there is sound reason for that: Had I bet the 345 called for in the 2nd shoe it hits +42 at play 41!
It hits +42 in half a shoe in spite of the fact that we lose an entire 345 progression. But remember what I told you in the manual. The 345 can afford to lose a progression more than any other progression. Remember that?
When you lose a 345 you are 4 units down.
BUT, When you lose a 123 you are 6 units down.
So which is the more conservative?
Which is the safest?
And which wins the most?
Do we always do it? No!
But when we have a high hit rate on our first bets – like usual…..
Right Vinny! First and foremost a player MUST be both comfortable and confident in what he’s doing.
Many, like you, are more comfortable with the very occasional but high hit rate betting of MDB+.
Others, for the same reason, don’t like it. They WANT to play most every hand.
Our best players will go by what they see where and when they play.
When they see bias, they play NOR.
When they don’t they play MDB+.
Both are good concepts in their own environments.
And fortunately here in the US, we have BOTH.
For instance I was just looking over 14 shoes from that 4 games at once set up from Pallazio, Vegas.
I said we can rule out MDB+ completely because every shoe is highly biased.
We can rule out TB4L because every shoe is loaded with 2s.
We can rule out S40 because the shoes are loaded with ST, ZZ and TT runs.
But a qualified OTB4L player can make a fortune betting U1D2 M2 in Mode 2 to get on the many long runs the quickest – even U1D1M2.
This set up is so popular, other casinos are putting them in.
But can you imagine betting U1D2 every hand on 4 shoes at once?
A lot of players love it so I MUST teach how to beat it.
Ha, but YOU, I don’t think it’s your cup of tea.
To each his own.
Right Vinny! First and foremost a player MUST be both comfortable and confident in what he’s doing.
Many, like you, are more comfortable with the very occasional but high hit rate betting of MDB+.
Others, for the same reason, don’t like it. They WANT to play most every hand.
Our best players will go by what they see where and when they play.
When they see bias, they play NOR.
When they don’t they play MDB+.
Both are good concepts in their own environments.
And fortunately here in the US, we have BOTH.
For instance I was just looking over 14 shoes from that 4 games at once set up from Pallazio, Vegas.
I said we can rule out MDB+ completely because every shoe is highly biased.
We can rule out TB4L because every shoe is loaded with 2s.
We can rule out S40 because the shoes are loaded with ST, ZZ and TT runs.
But a qualified OTB4L player can make a fortune betting U1D2 M2 in Mode 2 to get on the many long runs the quickest – even U1D1M2.
This set up is so popular, other casinos are putting them in.
But can you imagine betting U1D2 every hand on 4 shoes at once?
A lot of players love it so I MUST teach how to beat it.
Ha, but YOU, I don’t think it’s your cup of tea.
To each his own.
Ellis,
Using your strategy with casing the tables and finding the most consistent table, if you could tailor it to my style of betting I would appreciate it. In my humble opinion, I don’t feel comfortable betting every hand. I think using the betting strategy in MDB+ is the best. Bet when the opportunity presents itself. When you find a table and it doesn’t matter what system you identify, once there is an opposite you can bet to whatever system you think is the best. When there is an opposite it starts a new sequence. If you win great, if you lose U1D2. If you are winning you know you are doing something right. If you are losing or going up to a 3 bet all the time re-evaluate.
My Memorable Experience with Ellis
I had the pleasure of playing with Ellis and Art on September 19th and 20th. We played at Caesars in the High Stakes room as well as the Low Stakes area. I followed Ellis like a puppy dog. My goal was to store as much information as my brain cells could retain on Ellis playing style. I’ve had several Instructors in my time but Ellis is the only one that plays right along side and puts his money where his mouth is. The following is my documentation of the occasion.
Ellis, the master, does not use a score card. He walks around checking out the Tote boards. Using his experience he mentally classifies the shoes into categories such as S40, OTB4L, TB4L, REPEATS or MDB+. When he sees a shoe to his liking, he sits down and plays. When the shoe starts going against him he picks up his winnings and moves on. He does not wait. He reminds me of a guerrilla fighter. He does not force the play.
One S40 shoe we were winning every progression at either the 1 bet or a rare 2 bet. We had just won 8 or 9 bets in a row and we were beginning to draw an audience. I had my 2 bet up when Ellis said: “Ed, just bet 1. This shoe has been too good for too long.” Sure enough, we lost our 1 bet. Ellis said: “we are way up – we’re out of here!” We colored in and sure enough we would have lost the next bet. Ellis has that knack.
Ellis frequently checked on Art at a $200 table playing MDB+. He could tell exactly where Art stood just looking at the tote board. Art was betting a 2-4 progression. This one time, Art had his 4 bet up on Player. Ellis said: “this is a particularly good bet – watch this!” Ellis handed Art a $100 bill and said: “put a black up for me on top of your bet!” So we had $500 bet on Player. The rest of the table was on Bank. They lost! Art handed Ellis 2 hundred dollar bills! Ellis said to me. “OK, let’s go find a game!”
A shoe from the high roller room and a shoe from the regular casino area are listed for demonstration of my play.
High Roller Room–September 19, 2015–7:49 PM—Minimum bet $100
P1412111313612412111. This shoe was High in 1’s and 3+ which favored TB4L. I lost 4 units and quit.
This was the first time that I ever played in the High Roller room where minimum bet start at $100 and go up to $500. I did not feel any fear, I had Ellis coaching me.
Regular Casino Area– September 19, 2015–9:00 PM—Minimum bet $25
P11311611121111122221221212. This shoe was High in 1’s and 2’s which favored OTB4L, except where you had the run of 6. I won 13 units and quit.
My question is: What do you do where casinos outside of Vegas only have 2 Tables? My opinion is to be patient and disciplined, and hit when the iron is hot. Bet the highest unit you can afford and quit when the shoe turns.
I am looking forward to The Final Word. It will be the best Baccarat Manual EVER based on seeing Ellis in action!
Respectfully,
Ed Gil
OK so black2bac asks:
“September 30, 2015 at 10:09 pm
Wow! Nice synopsis of NOR methods analysis. You just stated what it took about 30 hours to read on BTC……just kidding!
Here’s a forum question: in your example shoe of repeats, supposing that the player run ends at 2. That is, you’ve encountered your first 2iar, the nemesis of all TB4L strategies. What would you do next? Continue on betting repeats, sit out a while, or leave the game. What if the next event were another 2iar?
This is a critical issue that comes up often and goes to the heart of the “system switching” dilemma. Hope this gets some attention in the manual.”
Ellis says:
!
Aha, perfect question: Now you will see the wisdom of adding
‘simply betting Repeats’ to the NOR choices!
So OK, you’ve got a streaky shoe on your hands meaning it is high in Repeats – a negative OR count.
First recognize that 2s don’t change the OR count. 2s consist of one opposite and one repeat so we could say they are OR neutral.
So again: “What are 2s doing?” In a streaky shoe 2s can be high, low or normal.
We have TWO streak systems in NOR: Repeats and TB4L. 2s decide which we play.
Repeats LOVES 2s! We keep losing our 1 and winning our 2 bet. We’ll take that all day.
TB4L Hates 2s!
On the other hand:
TB4L LOVES ZZs while
Repeats HATES ZZS.
But fortunately for us, shoes CAN’T be High in everything or Low in everything.
For everything a shoe is High in, it MUST be equally low in something else.
Therefore, a streaky shoe CAN’T be high in both 2s and ZZs. It MUST be one or the other.
Therefore streaky shoes are decided by 2s.
High 2s or even normal 2s we play Repeats. Low or no 2s we play TB4L.
Or we could say the same thing this way: In streaky shoes,
High ZZs we play TB4L, high 2s we play Repeats. A streaky shoe CAN’T have both. See that?
If you understand that you’ve eliminated all excuses for ever losing a streaky shoe AND HALF of all shoes are streaky.
ON the other hand: half of all shoes are choppy and the ONLY thing that can cause a choppy shoe is High 1’s. NOTHING else can cause a choppy shoe.
That’s S40!
The only thing left is neutral shoes: an OR count hovering Zero. (Runless shoes.)
Those are nearly always high in single and double 1’s, 2s and 3s – perfect for OTB4L.
See why we want consistency? The ONLY thing we can lose to is shoes that are a mixture of the above. THAT is why we avoid those in the first place or get out at the first sign of trouble.
This should give tote board reading a whole new meaning!
So, back to your question: We are cruising along with TB4L in a streaky shoe when up jumps 2s. What do we do? Simple! We slip into Repeats. Repeats loves twos! Get it?
Wow! Nice synopsis of NOR methods analysis. You just stated what it took about 30 hours to read on BTC……just kidding!
Here’s a forum question: in your example shoe of repeats, supposing that the player run ends at 2. That is, you’ve encountered your first 2iar, the nemesis of all TB4L strategies. What would you do next? Continue on betting repeats, sit out a while, or leave the game. What if the next event were another 2iar?
This is a critical issue that comes up often and goes to the heart of the “system switching” dilemma. Hope this gets some attention in the manual.
For instance: here’s an easy one:
The tote board reads: PPPP BBBBB PP
What do you play?
Answer: Repeats but with an expectancy to go to TB4L at the first sign of a ZZ.
Repeats just won 8 out of 10 plays for crying out loud.
But Repeats is vulnerable to ZZs. But its a simple maneuver to slip into TB4L from Repeats. Now you beat EVERYTHING except 2’s.
Your bet is P. Get your bet out on the table right now! You can get comfortable in your seat and buy chips later. Put cash on P if you have no chips. They take cash you know. Then buy your chips.
These are the kinds of things you need to know automatically W/O having to think about it. Sure, player MIGHT only go 2. But in this case your odds are NOT 50/50. They are 80/20 in your favor.
So I ask you again: The shoe is over and it was 80% Repeats. What were your odds every time you bet Repeat???
You already know the shoe is highly biased. You don’t ask how or why. You bet on the fact of the matter that is staring you in the face. Get it?
You know, Keith has this new deal he’s charging $25 a month for where you can post a shoe. Then a computer program checks about ten different ways of playing your shoe and then plays it for you the best way.
Cute! But how does that help you?
Look, everybody knows how to play a shoe once it’s over with.
But the fact remains – we don’t get ten tries.
We get ONE try.
First we look at ALL the tote boards to detect the general playing conditions of that casino at that specific time. Then we look for the most consistent tote board start. You get better and better with practice – to the point where you seldom have to change systems mid shoe. I’m at the point where I only need to change systems about once every ten shoes. That’s where you need to be and I think I know a way to get you there where you can practice right here on the forum.
It’s a lot cheaper to practice here than in a casino!
And here I can SHOW you how to select the system that best fits the tote board start.
Here’s what I’m thinking…
Everybody these days has a camera phone.
Fine, take pictures of tote boards in progress and post them here.
That gives us the most meaningful discussion – the most pertinent discussion to winning at Baccarat on the entire internet. Hands on, real world, virtual in casino training. It gets right to the challenge we face every time we step into a casino.
THAT is what you need to know – how to play a shoe BEFORE the fact..
After the fact doesn’t help. It’s too late.
What do you guys think? Wouldn’t that be the very best training possible.
Isn’t that the very challenge we face?
Guys, wouldn’t that make CFC the best Baccarat forum possible?
So let’s get down to brass tacks. Yes, beating a casino is somewhat an art form. But in the final analysis you simply need the discipline to follow certain rules.
Look, it’s YOU against THEM and THEY are professionals. You must think like a professional too. You can’t follow the crowd. The crowd loses. You’ve got to be your own person and do your own thing.
Every casino has vulnerabilities, your duty is to find them and exploit them. They are there – ALWAYS.
Look at the average player. How do they perform? They walk into a casino and find their game and their stakes and then grabs the first open seat they can find.
That’s a loss looking for a place to happen!
No, no, no! That’s not how you beat a casino.
YOU are a pro. THINK like a pro. ACT like a pro. BE a pro.
Rule Number One. Case the joint! ALWAYS, the first thing you do is case the joint like a bank robber.
Examine the tote boards. There is ALWAYS a best one.
What are you looking for? Consistency!
Well, first, what do you avoid?
You pass right by tote boards where you see inconsistency – chop changing to streak or streak changing to chop. Strangely, that’s where the crowd usually is.
But YOU want CONSISTENCY!
You don’t care what it is consistent in as long as it is consistent.
Consistent chop – lots of 1’s and 2s and the occasional 3. That’s a sys 40 game!
Consistent streak – lots of runs both ST and ZZ but low 2s. That’s a TB4L game.
Consistent Neutral – runless tote board. Lots of 2s and 3s and single 1’s. – OTB4L
Consistent random – all events occurring at normal frequency. That’s MDB+
Don’t make the mistake I made. Don’t assume It’s MDB+ just because they are dealing factory cards. All casinos have strategies. Your job is to detect their strategy. Chop, Streak, Neutral or Random.
The single most important event – the most telling event is TWOS.
What are 2s doing?
Low 2s is TB4L
High 2s is OTB4L.
Normal 2s – one every 8 plays, is MDB+
There may be several good tables but there is always a BEST table.
Find it and exploit it.
That is what separates YOU from the crowd.
They don’t care where they play. That’s why they lose.
But you care and you care a lot. That’s why you win! That’s HOW you win!
THAT is the whole secret of Baccarat!
CASE the joint! Find the best table, It is there, It’s always there! Waiting, inviting,
Find it. Then adjust your progression to the quality of the table.
To be a pro you’ve got to THINK like a pro.
I have come to believe that a great teacher is a great artist and that there are as few as there are any other great artists. Teaching might even be the greatest of the arts since the medium is the human mind and spirit.
John Steinbeck
We like to develop our mentality and teach it and so players think the way we want to think so that we can function and execute the way we want to function.
Each One, Teach One… – Ellis
If I am walking with two other men, each of them will serve as my teacher. I will pick out the good points of the one and imitate them, and the bad points of the other and correct them in myself.
Confucius
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